The AbyssThe Abyss

Posted on Dec 22nd 2007 at 02:42:50 AM by (TraderJake)
Posted under Science, Mars, Tunguska, Asteroid, Probability, Poisson Distribution

So yeah, kudos to you if you know what the Tunguska Event is. See, in 1908, an asteroid or comet exploded above Siberia, obliterating everything within 830 square miles. It was one of those rare occasions that proved that contrary to what Molotov Cocktease said, it is not always cold in Siberia. Interestingly enough, it is possible that the asteroid / comet was up to 1.2km in diameter. Luckily, since it exploded 5-10 kilometers above Tunguska, the impact event did not bring upon the second dark age (The prior dark age beginning in 500 AD is hypothesized to be a result of a super volcano explosion that separated Java from Sumatra, you may have heard of the volcano... Krakatoa).  Certainly, this impact could have been significantly more catastrophic had it happened over a population center. Imagine it hitting London or Tokyo, either city would be wiped off the map. In fact, almost any city would be wiped off the map from a Tunguska type event. Hence, there is a genuine interest to make sure that we can guard against an impact such as the one that occurred in Siberia on June 30, 1908.

Well, CNN is saying that there is a 1 in 75 chance that an asteroid comparable to whatever impacted Tunguska will hit Mars on January 30, 2008. Sure, 1 in 75 is a small probability, but I can assure you that some of you have experienced rarer probabilities at work, such as a 100 year flood. Certainly, any impact on Mars would be rather devastating for what ever exists there (Xenu and his minions), but at the same time it would be a great insight as to what actually happens during these impact events. We know that the Earth has been impacted many times before, how valuable would it be for scientists and engineers to see what occurs during the impact so that they can guard against it. It could be an interesting day in January 30th for any science geek, time will tell.

[CNN]


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
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