Is the End of gaming (and collecting) as we know it near?

[bombatomba]

Gaming as you know will eventually end.  That is the way of things in years past and how it is now (and in the future).  Gaming was different ten years ago, and then years before that, and so on.  In order to move forward we have to move forward.  It's a super simple concept:  Do you want to buy that shiny new PS4 or next Xbox?  Then you have to play by their rules.  Otherwise just play and collect the old games, as there are certainly enough to go around, and many of them more fun than what is out now anyways.  This is my personal solution, and one I recommend.

But I still don't think that the near future is as bleak as everyone is groaning about.  I think we are more likely going see a situation like the DRM in Diablo III than a full-blown digital only program.  People complain, but they still purchase those types of games, so it seems more likely.  It's a situation that people with any type of Internet access can have, and might even force people who don't have it but play games to sign up.

But if you want to see when the "digital-only" era begins, look towards broadband penetration percentage in the United States.  It should be around 70% now of households now and the closer it inches towards 90% or 95%, the more likely it will happen.

[No]

I don't play games online and if I do indeed download a game, it wouldn't have always online DRM and don't use Steam at all even though I did have an account. While I'm not much of a collector, more like a player who has a collection, I see a game as a game with the boxes, manual and disc/cartridge/card being the wonderful extras (prefer the retail boxed version unless the download is really really cheap like with Darksiders, try to get a complete version for future generations but is impossible in most cases [only Rockstar, Warner and sometimes Sony out of the ones that I play]). Nowadays games don't even have manuals with about half of my Vita games don't come with manuals at all (only Sega really bothered and even then paper thin, EA is just legal gibberish like Warner Bros on the PS3/360 and Sony is a season pass at the most) so it would be a matter of time when everything goes digital only. It is getting sort of like that in the UK where the retail/bricks and mortar shops are dying off (two big chains are in administration and are on the verge of closing down) where your only options are an over priced shop (Game), Grainger Games who sometimes sell US stock and put PEGI stickers over it but it has been my option lately since if it is UK/EU version and they are cheaper it is worth getting*, the supermarkets (limited range and limited stock), CEX that is just second hand stock [not good if a game has an online pass or funny about used games like the Vita] or online only places like Amazon/ShopTo that I don't trust due to knowing how easy things get hacked especially credit card info [use top up cards bought via cash from supermarkets on PSN, all games are purchased via money]. The Wii U will be my last console but I'll predict it is going to be hard to find the games, even more than now that itself is tricky especially new Vita games. Doesn't help that many games that are out are not exactly my cup of tea (as in not into military FPS/RTS/RPGs or very strong Japanese vibe [e.g. Vocaloid Project Diva/Catherine]/most sports games/most mobile games).

* - To put things into perspective, they were the only place not online who offered Hitman: HD Trilogy at £20, the same price as a downloaded copy on PSN. The supermarket it was £23, HMV [nearly closed] and Game offered around £30 that is considered  way too much by my standards (they were as bad as selling the EA stuff on PSN for £60).

Personally I see Microsoft doing it first and more or less straight away, then Sony (due to that their latest interview they said that they don't want an online only option and would rather help the retail industry, remember on the Europe/rest of the world front they know not everyone has reliable internet plus the PSPgo flopped badly) could go either way and Nintendo being last since they are behind as in they just started with HD and DLC that Microsoft/Sony did 6 years ago meaning that the Wii U might be their last or penulitmate non-online main console.

Even though people are saying Steam/cloud/online only gaming is the future, there will be more lost games than ever as evidence of games on PSN/XBLA/Steam being removed in time usually due to licensing. I give a few examples, want to play OutRun Online Arcade, you can't since the game got removed on XBLA/PSN even though it was just a cutdown HD port of OutRun 2006 so that game is still sort of playable (not to 720p or online gameplay though) if you get OutRun 2006. GTI Club is worse due to that it was removed fairly early on, the only options are to either pirate it (but my console is too new to pirate), find the very rare UK Wii version that I could not find at all, to import the US PSP version and hope it doesn't have region locking or spend lots of money on an arcade cabinet of the game. Even more worse is Bionic Commando Rearmed 2, Capcom decided to have always online DRM in the game, after 2016 when the online servers get switched off you can't even play the game anymore making it lost rather like Sim City will be in 2 years time.

Let me name some more games that have been removed that people won't be able to play in the future: TMNT: Turtles in Time Reshelled, Sega Rally Online Arcade, Yaris, the PC version of GTA: Vice City, all original Wiiware games (stuff like Castlevania: Rebirth, Contra Rebirth) unless Nintendo ports them to the Wii U virtual console that I doubt, Daytona USA in the near future (when Sega will lose the rights to the name), any game that have licensing and any online free to play game or online only games. Also if Steam goes bust, then virtually all downloadable games on that service will become unplayable. Even though piracy is bad and is bad for both publishers and developers, sometimes it is also good since they preserve the game for future generations a point many people forget if you can't find the game anymore and if the developers lose the source code/files (it has happened) and want to re-release the game. There is a higher chance in 20 years time that you would be able to play an obscure Mah-jong game from the 1990s than it is to play any game made from now.

As for collecting well... The price of things will eventually get to the point where it becomes too expensive to get anything at a decent price since there will be more demand and less supply. It also worries that some cartridges/discs/tapes will stop working over time and even then a game could be accidentally destroyed making it worse. E.g. Paper Mario on the N64 last time I checked on eBay a few years ago was £60 the same price as retail when it came out and people were bidding on it. It is the reason why I don't have many N64 games, it was expensive and hard to find then, it is expensive now unless you find a miracle [oh and forget boxed N64 games too] and emulation is out of the league since N64 emulation is lousey at best (anything PS1 or lower are more decent emulation wise). Even the less demand that are Sega consoles will get worse in the future (from gathering it does seem that the Master System/Game Gear collectors are smaller than the Mega Drive/Saturn/Dreamcast collectors that itself are smaller than Nintendo/Atari and probably equal to the PC Engine). Oh and to top off things, the only games that will be left after all the known copies of a game are bought are sports games nobody wants. Like everytime I look at older games, all I seem to see are old PS2/PS1 if you are lucky soccer (or football where I come from) games or games that I already got back in the day or really bad licensed games that I would never play.

Sorry it is long...

Oh I looked into US broadband penetration percentage and only about 27.2%? (well probably more since the survey was done since it was done in 2010) Well that's lower than I thought since much of the Internet is pretty much American... By comparison Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland are 37%, Norway is 35%, Luxembourg is 33%, Germany, Sweden, Belgium and France are 31%, UK is 30% (much more now thanks to two certain sites [coughFacebookcoughTwittercough]). Spain, Finland and Italy are lower though. Yeah, I can see Europe going more into digital in that case but reliablity is a different factor.

[blcklblskt]

Although I'm staunchly against a download-only future for video games, I've completely embraced it with music.  I used to enjoy physical CDs, but having access to thousands of songs without having to swap CDs is amazing.  Maybe I'll come around to a download only future for video games sometime seeing as how my physical collection is diminishing, but who knows.

[bombatomba]

Oh I looked into US broadband penetration percentage and only about 27.2%? (well probably more since the survey was done since it was done in 2010) Well that's lower than I thought since much of the Internet is pretty much American... By comparison Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland are 37%, Norway is 35%, Luxembourg is 33%, Germany, Sweden, Belgium and France are 31%, UK is 30% (much more now thanks to two certain sites [coughFacebookcoughTwittercough]). Spain, Finland and Italy are lower though. Yeah, I can see Europe going more into digital in that case but reliablity is a different factor.

Sorry, I should have cited sources on this one.

For my statistical info on broadband penetration.  The data is not current (June 2012), but it shouldn't have changed much. The relevant data is in xls (sorry), but with fixed broadband you are correct.  The twist that is not taken into account in the data you accessed is wireless broadband, which is hovering around 77%, exceptionally high even for a country that does not have the more advanced mobile technology of say, Japan (who is also the only country that ranks higher than the United States).  If you look around more on Google you'll find inumerable other sources for this subject, many of them showing statistics that vary between 70% and 90%, but never below.  I simply chose the most reputable I could find in the shortest amount of time.

Although I'm staunchly against a download-only future for video games, I've completely embraced it with music.  I used to enjoy physical CDs, but having access to thousands of songs without having to swap CDs is amazing.  Maybe I'll come around to a download only future for video games sometime seeing as how my physical collection is diminishing, but who knows.

Here here!  I haven't bought an audio CD in years due to this fact.
Although I'm staunchly against a download-only future for video games, I've completely embraced it with music.  I used to enjoy physical CDs, but having access to thousands of songs without having to swap CDs is amazing.  Maybe I'll come around to a download only future for video games sometime seeing as how my physical collection is diminishing, but who knows.
[/quote]

Here here!  When I worked for Ford it became a massive hassle having to switch CDs nine or ten times a night, so I went the digital route and never looked back.  I'll buy a CD every now and then, but this is usually for music that is stuck in limbo.  Then it's FLAC city for me, baby!  Loseless audio FTW!  Now all my CDs are safely tucked away into a crate in my basement.  Ironically the Alice Cooper records aren't, though...

[KidA]

Here's a question I've always thought about.  Will our cartridges and CDs cease to work anytime soon?  I mean, isn't there only so much cleaning one can do?

[bombatomba]

Here's a question I've always thought about.  Will our cartridges and CDs cease to work anytime soon?  I mean, isn't there only so much cleaning one can do?

Slakur has a whole bunch of posts devoted to optical discs.  The cartridges...  I wouldn't worry too much, assuming that you keep them in an environment that is not overly humid and free of static electricity (and don't clean with files or with corrosive chemicals).  A physicist would likely talk to you about the slow and steady march of entropy and the dangers of oxygen, but I am not so I won't.  

[KidA]

You've spoken like a true scholar.  I'm about to seek said posts of Slackur now.  I remember reading an article claiming an average life of a CD to be twenty years or so.

[slackur]

*whistles nonchalantly*
http://www.rfgeneration.c...llers-and-Buyers-1337.php

[Tynstar]

Cartridges will work long after CD based systems will. The CD's might be fine but the drives running them with all the moving parts will be dead.

[techwizard]

*whistles nonchalantly*
http://www.rfgeneration.c...llers-and-Buyers-1337.php

i'm glad i'm not big on collecting disc based systems. they're generally just a riskier investment. i do have quite a few but because i'm not trying for a complete set on those systems, i don't have many that i've spent large sums of money on, besides ones i bought new.

i wonder with this sort of problem if it's gotten any better over the years? has the manufacturing process improved? is it limited to CDs, or is it just as common on DVDs? what about blu-rays, which are advertised as being more resilient in general?

[Leynos]

If anything I think collecting has become more widespread in recent years. With these older games released on XBL/PSN people seek out more. Even in my town which is a desert for gamers new shops have popped up. Also with newer games going crazy with Collectors Editions it just entices it more. It seems more to me collecting while always be a niche market it becoming more popular. I may buy digital games sometimes but does not slow me down from a boxed copy in my hands